CoinShares CEO Ryan Radloff, a UK cryptography investment products and research firm, has released a market report stating that based on the existing database, 1.9 million Bitcoins have already been promised to potential future buyers.
In a series of tweets and a media post on August 17, Ryan Radloff explained how Bitcoin can follow in the footsteps of companies like Amazon and Microsoft, whose shares were deflated as a part of the dot-com bubble in 2000, and then over a long period of time ascend to new heights. According to Radloff, this requires a new “success story” or “narrative” in order to arouse consumer interest and raise prices to new heights:
When you come from high places, the success story is harder to see … and most people only invest in future success stories.
CoinShares CEO, Radloff sees the “history” that institutional investors are pushing up the bitcoin price are rather skeptical. Radloff explains in the article that institutional “history” actually “misses the mark”. In his opinion, institutions will only promote access to cryptocurrencies and only bring “a little more liquidity” into the market.
So far, according to Radloff, every bitcoin speculation hype cycle, since its inception in 2009, has been driven by individual buyers. In the phases where the hype flattened and recession crept in, it was about creating the infrastructure for new investors:
With each new wave of large user flows, we see a run in the price. This is usually followed by another wave of new access points, and the cycle repeats each time on a larger scale.
CoinShares CEO, Radloff has A Success Story…
In the market report, Radloff writes that the second and third most common questions he receives from legacy investors are who currently owns Bitcoin and who will own Bitcoin in the future. The potential future demand should provide the classic concept of Total Addressable Market (TAM) and at the same time show the future success story.
He bases the calculations for TAM on several studies from that year that covered the knowledge of cryptocurrencies, the interest and the penetration of western population:
ING International Survey – Sample size: 14,828 (Source)
- 66% of Europeans, 57% of Americans and 70% of Australians have heard of cryptocurrency,
- 25% of Europeans, 21% of Americans and 15% of Australians expect to own cryptocurrency in the future,
- 9% of Europeans, 8% of Americans and 7% of Australians currently own a specific cryptocurrency.
Global Blockchain Business Council Survey – Sample size: 5,761(Source)
- 6 out of 10 Americans have heard of Bitcoin. This is more than double that of a similar poll from 2013
- A survey by the Bank of Canada – Sample size: 1,997 (Source)
- About 2/3 of the Canadians have heard of Bitcoin
- Less than 3% of Canadians own Bitcoin
Based on these surveys, Radloff and his team conclude that at least 99 million people in the US, Australia and the Eurozone will own cryptocurrencies in the future.